UTSA vs. Tulane prediction: the line and FPI disagree (Week 8)

Final, Oct. 24: UTSA 42, Tulane 19. The line had it right, and ESPN’s FPI and this preview didn’t: UTSA won by 23 as a 3-point favorite and is 4-0 in the American. The preview below is as it was written before kickoff.

UTSA is 6-1, 3-0 in the American and alone at the top of the standings. Tonight it goes to New Orleans, where Tulane has won 10 straight home games, according to Crescent City Sports. The sportsbooks make UTSA a field-goal favorite. ESPN’s FPI thinks Tulane wins this more often than not. One of them is going to look silly by about 11:30 p.m. ET.

How to watch

• When: Saturday, Oct. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. in New Orleans)
• TV: ESPNU
• Where: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La.

The line

As of Saturday afternoon, UTSA is a 3-point favorite with a total of 51.5 (DraftKings via ESPN). The moneyline is UTSA -148, Tulane +124.

ESPN’s FPI goes the other way: Tulane wins 59.1% of the time, UTSA 40.9%. That’s a real split. The market is paying for UTSA’s record and its quarterback. FPI is a power rating, so it likely weighs Tulane playing Duke and Kansas State in nonconference play, plus home field, more than the records. When a 6-1 team is the FPI underdog against a 3-3 team, it usually means the 6-1 team’s wins were closer than its record.

UTSA’s were. Take out the opener against UT Rio Grande Valley and the 59-45 shootout with Colorado State, and its other four wins came by 5, 2, 7 and 4 points.

UTSA: what’s working, what isn’t

Record: 6-1, 3-0 American. Last five: L 30-6 at Texas, W 59-45 vs. Colorado State, W 16-14 at Rice, W 31-24 vs. South Florida, W 38-34 vs. Navy.

Owen McCown is the reason UTSA is in first place. He has completed 153 of 220 passes (69.5%) for 1,578 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Against Navy last week he went 28 of 38 for 359 yards and three scores, and after Navy went ahead 34-31 with 4:50 left, he drove 75 yards in six plays and hit A’Marion Peterson for a 41-yard touchdown with 2:24 to go, per the AP.

The run game is real too. Will Henderson III has 562 yards on 94 carries, six a pop, and Crescent City Sports has the Henderson, Peterson and Brandon High trio at about 157 rushing yards a game. DJ Allen Jr. leads the receivers with 325 yards.

What isn’t working is the defense. UTSA gave up 45 points to Colorado State and 34 to Navy, and Crescent City Sports puts its run defense at more than 200 yards allowed per game. The Roadrunners are also tired: tonight is their eighth game in eight weeks before an open date, and the San Antonio Express-News reported a busy training room after the Navy game. Jeff Traylor told the Express-News that Tulane would come in with momentum and that his team had its work cut out for it.

Tulane: what’s working, what isn’t

Record: 3-3, 1-1 American. Last five: W 28-24 vs. South Alabama, L 31-20 at Kansas State, W 24-21 vs. Southern Miss, L 20-17 at Army, W 31-17 vs. Memphis.

Tulane changed quarterbacks last week. Kadin Semonza is still the season leader (804 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions), but freshman Trace Johnson made his first college start against Memphis and went 11 of 21 for 165 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The passing game is the weak spot: the Express-News has Tulane at No. 116 nationally at 179.7 passing yards per game.

The running game is better than the record. Maurice Turner has 315 yards on just 37 carries, 8.5 a carry, and Destyn Hill leads the receivers with 285 yards.

The defense is the story. Against Memphis, which came in averaging about 38.5 points, Tulane forced six turnovers (the program’s most in a game since 2003, per Roundtable), had seven sacks and held Memphis to 2 of 11 on third down. TJ Smith’s 76-yard interception return on the last play of the first half was the swing. Before that night, Tulane had forced one turnover in five games. Memphis still gained 482 yards, so this was a defense that bent hard and took the ball away, not one that shut anyone down.

Tulane also has the fresher legs: an open week on Oct. 3 and an extra day after a Friday game.

Three things that decide it

1. Tulane’s run game against UTSA’s run defense. If UTSA really is giving up 200-plus rushing yards a game, Tulane doesn’t need its freshman to win it through the air. Turner at 8.5 yards a carry is the matchup that matters most, and every long Tulane drive keeps McCown on the sideline.

2. Does Memphis happen again? Six takeaways in one game after one in five is not a trend yet. McCown has thrown two interceptions in 220 attempts, and Traylor told the Express-News the plan is not to change anything radical about how UTSA protects the ball. If UTSA wins the turnover battle, its offense is simply better than Tulane’s.

3. Tulane’s edge rushers against UTSA’s line. Traylor singled out Tulane’s bandit linebackers, Warren Roberts Jr. and Jah’rie Garner, as a problem, per the Express-News. Makai Williams leads Tulane with three sacks. Seven sacks against Memphis says the pressure can get home; if it does tonight, McCown’s completion percentage is the first thing to go.

Prediction

Tulane 27, UTSA 24.

UTSA has the better quarterback and the better record, and it has been winning the close ones. But it has been winning them by a field goal or a touchdown against Rice, South Florida and Navy, with a defense that gives up yards on the ground, in the eighth week of an eight-week stretch. Tulane gets a rested team at home, a run game averaging 8.5 yards a carry from its leading back, and a defense coming off its most takeaways in a game since 2003. FPI’s lean is right: Tulane runs it, doesn’t ask Johnson to win it alone, and hands the American leader its first conference loss.

One note for anyone in a Pick 6 league with Tulane in their Group of 6 slot: at +3, Tulane is half a point short of what counts as an upset in college fantasy football the Pick 6 way, where an underdog of 3.5 or more scores double. A win tonight is worth the usual one point. UTSA owners, meanwhile, are risking nothing extra: UTSA isn’t a big enough favorite for a loss to cost a point.