Arizona, not Utah or BYU, is the Big 12's best team right now

The best team in the Big 12 is Arizona. Not unbeaten Utah, not BYU, which spent one week at No. 2 before UCF beat it in double overtime, and not Texas Tech, which just lost by 13 at Cincinnati. Arizona entered the AP poll at No. 25 last week, its first ranking of the season, and on Saturday it goes to Lubbock as an underdog. It shouldn’t be.

This is the week it matters. Four teams sit at 3-1 in the league behind Utah’s 4-0: BYU, Arizona, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Two of them, Arizona and Texas Tech, play each other at noon Saturday. The winner is the team chasing Utah. The loser has two league losses with a month left.

Reason one: nobody in the league is winning like this

Arizona is 6-1, and its last five wins have come by 25, 10, 27, 21 and 36 points. That’s an average of 23.8 a game over the last month and a half. In Big 12 play the three wins came by 27, 21 and 36.

Now look at the unbeaten team. Utah’s four Big 12 wins came by 14, 17, 3 and 8 points. The 3 was at Colorado, which is 2-5 and 0-4 in the league. The 8 was Saturday’s 21-13 over Houston, at home. Utah is 7-0 and deserves every bit of that record. But a team that beat Colorado by a field goal and a team that just beat Iowa State 39-3 are not playing at the same level right now, and the numbers say Arizona is the one ahead.

Reason two: the common opponents

Iowa State is the cleanest comparison, because three contenders have played it. Utah won 31-17 in Ames. BYU won 24-10 in Provo. Arizona won 39-3 on Saturday, held the Cyclones to 221 total yards and 52 rushing yards on 31 carries, and ended their streak of 23 straight games with 100 rushing yards, according to ESPN’s recap.

Then there’s Cincinnati, the comparison that matters most this week. Arizona beat the Bearcats 34-7 on Oct. 3. Three weeks later Cincinnati beat Texas Tech 37-24, and Texas Tech had closed as a 10.5-point favorite. Transitive scores prove nothing on their own. But a 27-point win over a team that just handled the Red Raiders by 13 is a fact worth holding onto when you see Texas Tech favored on Saturday.

Reason three: Noah Fifita is out-throwing every contender’s quarterback

Fifita has completed 167 of 225 passes this season, 74.2%, for 2,064 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. Against Iowa State he went 27 of 34 for 308 yards and two scores, and he hit Isaiah Mizell for a 71-yard touchdown on the second snap of the game.

Compare the other contenders’ quarterbacks on ESPN’s season leader lists. Utah’s Devon Dampier has 1,616 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. Texas Tech’s Will Hammond has 1,561 yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions. BYU’s Bear Bachmeier has 1,514 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. Fifita has about 450 more yards than any of them and at least three more touchdowns. Mizell, with 493 receiving yards and five scores, gives him a target who can end a drive in one play.

The best argument against

BYU beat Arizona 28-17 on Sept. 12. Head to head is the cleanest evidence there is, and if these two finish tied, that result is what the standings will care about.

It doesn’t change my mind about who is better now. That game was seven weeks ago, in Provo, in Arizona’s second game. Since then Arizona has gone 5-0 and BYU has gone 4-1, with wins of 17-10 at TCU (3-4) and 28-24 over Notre Dame before Saturday’s loss at UCF. BYU is a good team that wins close. Arizona has stopped playing close games.

The other fair point is ESPN’s FPI, which gives Texas Tech a 67.1% chance to win Saturday. FPI leans on more than this season, and Lubbock is a hard place to play. What would change my mind is simple: if Arizona loses by more than a score, the take is wrong and the last five weeks were a soft stretch. Utah comes to Tucson on Nov. 14 for the second test.

What to watch this weekend

• No. 25 Arizona at No. 8 Texas Tech, Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN. Texas Tech is a 4.5-point favorite as of Sunday, Oct. 25. This is the game.
• No. 10 Utah at Cincinnati, 3:45 p.m. ET on ESPN. Utah is a 6.5-point favorite. Cincinnati has already played Arizona and Texas Tech, so this is the third data point from the same opponent.
• Arizona State at No. 2 BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET on Fox. BYU is a 14.5-point favorite, at home a week after the UCF loss.

Ranks above are the AP poll ESPN listed for these games before Sunday’s new poll. Wherever that poll puts Arizona, the line says the market isn’t sold yet either. In college fantasy football the Pick 6 way, where you draft whole teams, an underdog of 3.5 points or more that wins is worth double. Whoever drafted Arizona in their Big 12 slot is about to find out if they were early or right.