Oregon State vs. Fresno State prediction: payback (Week 9)

Oregon State is 3-0 in the rebuilt Pac-12, tied with Boise State at the top, and has scored 48 or more in four of its last five games. Fresno State is 1-2 after two straight losses by a combined 10 points, and a third would all but end its conference title hopes before November. Last September, Fresno State went to Corvallis and won 36-29. On Halloween night, Oregon State returns the visit.

How to watch

• When: Saturday, Oct. 31, 11:00 p.m. ET (8:00 p.m. in Fresno)
• TV: USA Network
• Where: Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, Calif.

Both teams are coming off a bye.

The line

As of Sunday, Oct. 25, Oregon State is a 7-point favorite with a total of 57.5 (DraftKings via ESPN). The moneyline is Oregon State -250, Fresno State +205.

ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon State a 64.2% chance to win. The moneyline works out to about 71%, so the market is a little higher on the Beavers than FPI is. Our read: the market is paying for the last five weeks, while a season-long rating still counts two September losses and a Fresno State team that played Boise State to a one-score game.

The spread and total together point to something like 32-25 Oregon State. That’s a game Fresno State can be in, if it shows up for the first quarter. More on that below.

Oregon State: what’s working, what isn’t

Oregon State is 5-2 (3-0 Pac-12) in JaMarcus Shephard’s first season as head coach. It lost its first two games, 33-20 at Houston and 35-24 to Texas Tech, the same Texas Tech team that Arizona goes to Lubbock to face this weekend. Since then it hasn’t been close:

• 52-17 vs. Montana
• 33-7 at UTEP
• 56-26 at Colorado State
• 66-14 vs. San Diego State
• 48-30 vs. Washington State

That’s 255 points in five games, 51 a game, against 94 allowed. For the season the Beavers average 42.7 points.

The engine is the passing game. Braden Atkinson, a transfer from Mercer, has completed 189 of 273 passes (69.2%) for 2,604 yards, 24 touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s 12 touchdowns for every interception. Against Washington State he threw for 347 yards and three scores, according to the Associated Press.

His favorite target is the most dangerous player on the field Saturday. Jesse Legree has 46 catches for 1,040 yards and 14 touchdowns, 22.6 yards a catch, and the AP reported that he was the first wideout to reach 1,000 yards this season. One of his two touchdowns against Washington State went for 90 yards. AJ Newberry leads the backs with 431 yards on 65 carries (6.6 a carry) and caught five passes for 120 yards against the Cougars.

On defense, Takari Hickle has six sacks and Aiden Sullivan leads the team with 53 tackles. The defense hasn’t been perfect: Washington State scored 30, its most against an FBS team this season per the AP, with a redshirt freshman making his first start.

Fresno State: what’s working, what isn’t

Fresno State is 4-3 (1-2 Pac-12) under second-year coach Matt Entz. The last five:

• 26-10 at San José State
• 38-24 vs. Rice
• 26-6 at Washington State
• 31-38 loss vs. Boise State
• 23-26 loss at San Diego State

The defense is the reason Fresno State is in most games. It has allowed 20.9 points a game, and only 13.8 in the five games that weren’t against USC or Boise State. It held Washington State to six points, 24 fewer than Oregon State allowed to the same team.

The offense is the problem. Jayden Mandal has completed 123 of 195 passes (63.1%) for 1,393 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. He doesn’t give the ball away, but Atkinson has thrown for nearly twice as many yards and three times as many touchdowns. Josiah Freeman leads the receivers with 32 catches for 445 yards, and Rayshon Luke leads the rushers with 333 yards on 52 carries.

At San Diego State, Fresno State managed 276 yards, about 80 below its average, according to GV Wire. Mandal went 13 of 25 for 141 yards, and when the Bulldogs got the ball back down 26-23 with 57 seconds left, they were sacked on the first play and threw two straight incompletions. Entz, speaking after the game, said he didn’t know why his team needed until the second quarter to get going and that it had to find a way to start faster.

Three things that decide it

1. Fresno State’s first quarter. GV Wire counted five scoreless first quarters in seven games, including 33 yards and three first downs in the first quarter at San Diego State, where Fresno State fell behind 13-0. Against San Diego State, that start cost the game by three points. Against Oregon State, which led Washington State 27-10 at halftime and put up 66 on the Aztecs, a slow start is how a one-score game turns into a three-score game.

2. Legree against a defense that doesn’t give up big plays. Fresno State allowed six points to Washington State and 10 to San José State by keeping things in front of it. Legree’s 22.6 yards a catch says he doesn’t stay in front of anyone. If Fresno State keeps him under 100 yards, the total is in danger of going under and this is a fourth-quarter game. If he gets two touchdowns again, it’s over by the third quarter.

3. Can Mandal keep pace? Oregon State has scored at least 33 in five straight games. Fresno State has scored more than 31 twice all season, and one of those was 49 against Sacramento State. Mandal’s one interception in 195 attempts is a real strength, because the way Fresno State wins is long drives that keep Atkinson on the sideline. Hickle’s six sacks are the threat to that plan: the last drive at San Diego State began with a sack.

Prediction

Oregon State 34, Fresno State 23.

The common opponents tell most of the story. Against San Diego State, Oregon State won by 52 and Fresno State lost by three. Against Washington State, both won comfortably, with Fresno State’s defense the better unit that day and Oregon State’s offense miles ahead. Fresno State’s defense is good enough to slow Oregon State down, but not to hold it to the 20 or so points this offense would need to be held to for Mandal to win a game he has to win from behind.

The upset case is real, though. Fresno State is at home, at night, off a bye, with a defense allowing 20.9 points a game and a quarterback who doesn’t throw interceptions, and it already beat Oregon State once in the last 14 months. A fast start, a couple of stops on Legree and one short field would do it. In Pick 6, a win by an underdog getting 3.5 points or more scores double, so anyone who drafted the Bulldogs into their Group of 6 slot has two points riding on that first quarter.

We don’t think it happens. Oregon State goes to 4-0 in the Pac-12 and sets up Nov. 14 at Boise State as the biggest game of the Pac-12 regular season.